Business Strategy

Business Planning In An Uncertain Economy

Advantages of integrating continuing learning into the matrix

If GM could get it so wrong for so long then what chance do other businesses have in uncertain times? It is now a global economy and an increasingly borderless world for trade. We therefore have to expect that there will be suppliers of goods and providers of services who will trade worldwide. Increasingly, it is quality and value for money that is shaping markets more then loyalty to traditional national brands. Understanding what the consumer truly wants is critical to strategic business planning.

The business that better understands more of the variables that go into shaping consumer demand will be the one to pull ahead and over-take the competition out there. It has always been the team with the better strategy that wins.

It is therefore critical for a winning business plan to include a process for acquiring market information for analysis as to changing economic conditions. The business plan must set out a mechanism for processing this information into useful knowledge that can be utilized to make decisions on whether the product or service offered meets consumer demand, needs to evolve or be abandoned. Built into the plan must be a strategy for learning from both success and failure that can be fed into future product or service innovation and evolution.

A successful business plan must therefore include a strategy to identify a winning product or service as well as a framework for learning from market responses and an ability to innovate to win based on lessons learnt from such responses.

It is important to appreciate at the planning stage that since there is uncertainty in the economy, forecasting what will be the market response cannot be done accurately. In other words the planners have to recognize that they will have to be constantly learning and reworking cost and sales figures as the plan is implemented. This is the continuing life long learning component that must be an integral part of the business planning matrix. The plan should be, to learn and innovate very quickly at a sustainable cost in order to turn a profit at the end of the process. To do this the learning process must help the business evaluate risk and take advantage of business opportunities that emerge.

In many ways this approach to business planning requires applying the mind set of entrepreneurship as opposed to a more business management approach of doing a market study, coming up with a marketing and financial plan with a profit forecast prior to implementation which is based on fixed assumptions with no changing of horses in mid stream. Entrepreneurs know that you have to innovate as you go along implementing a plan because you never know how deep the water is until you get your feet wet and success comes from a willingness to learn on the job.

In uncertain economic conditions a business cannot afford to make too many costly mistakes as markets shrink and the cost of financing increases. Many of the assumptions in a booming economy such as easy access to funding based on reputation and past performance disappear. Past profits may have been based on failures being paid for with cheap funding made available based on projected sales figures calculated on an assumption that market conditions will remain the same. Prediction of impending global economic uncertainty may have been ignored.

Too often, when good times come, behavior changes and too many in business come to believe it will never end. Too much money is spent on expensive lessons and little is learnt about how the profits are actually being achieved.

The key to business success in uncertain times is to create a business strategy unit which will learn lessons from the information generated from the implementation process in a cost effective manner in a very short time frame which can then be fed into innovation that allows the implementers to adapt to the changes on the ground. This approach to planning recognizes that the plan is not based on complete knowledge as not all the information variables are available at any given time of decision making.

Hence, there must be a recognition that figures have to be constantly recalculated and decisions modified with a recognition that all financial targets are approximations. There must also be an exit strategy built into the business plan that indicates when and how a project should be abandoned to avoid excessive losses and how the knowledge acquired in the implementation process can be utilized for a new venture.

Whether GM evolves into Green Motors or a Genetic Mutation that gives us new innovations in transportation will depend on the lessons that come out of the business restructuring plan now underway.

Perhaps the lesson all businesses can learn from the current economic uncertainty is, how to prioritize wants and recognize business needs.

Siddha Param
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